Today is the 22nd of May, 2026, and here in Atlantis, we’re keeping a close eye on the tropical weather swirling around us. The sun is shining, but there’s a lot happening out there in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of America that’s worth talking about. You know how it goes—one moment it’s sunny, and the next, the skies can darken with a storm brewing. So, let’s dive into what Marv’s Weather has to say about our current tropical situation. You can check out the full report here.
First off, we’re looking at two distinct tropical waves. One wave is kicking around in the Eastern Atlantic, near 37W and south of 10N, moving westward at a brisk pace of 10-15 knots, with some isolated moderate convection. The second wave is making itself known in the Caribbean along 75W, just south of 15N. This one is also heading west at about 10 knots, stirring up some action with scattered and locally strong convection near Colombia. It’s a pretty fascinating setup as these waves interact with local weather patterns!
Monsoon Trough and ITCZ
The Monsoon Trough is diving into the Atlantic around 12.5N16.5W, bending southwest towards 03N23W. The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) stretches from 03N23W to 00.5N34W and then from 01N39W right down to the Brazilian coast at 02N51W. If you’re keeping track, scattered moderate convection is popping up south of 06.5N and east of 27W, and also between 01N and 04N between 27W and 34W. Honestly, it’s always incredible to see how these patterns shift and influence our weather right here on the ground.
Now, turning our eyes to the Gulf of America, there’s a solid 1025 mb high-pressure system positioned east of Bermuda, extending a ridge into the eastern Gulf. This setup is giving us moderate E to SE winds and calm seas of 2-4 ft. However, don’t let that fool you—the surface trough stretching from southwest Louisiana down to Tampico, Mexico, is generating heavy rainfall and strong winds. It’s a bit of a mixed bag, really. Expect gentle to moderate winds across the basin, but those fresh to strong winds are likely to pulse off NW Yucatan during the evenings.
Conditions in the Caribbean Sea
In the Caribbean Sea, we’re experiencing a broad ridge centered on that same 1025 mb high-pressure system east of Bermuda. This is whipping up fresh to strong easterly trade winds, with seas reaching 6-9 ft in the central Caribbean. Moderate breezes and seas in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras are soothing, but elsewhere, it’s a gentle vibe. It looks like those fresh to strong trades will continue over the south-central Caribbean into early next week, so if you’re planning to be out on the water, keep that in mind!
As we gaze out into the Atlantic Ocean, a middle to upper-level low is hanging over the northern Bahamas, and it’s enhancing shower activity between 69W and 75W. The broad subtropical ridge continues to influence the SW North Atlantic with moderate to fresh easterly winds. Meanwhile, a stationary front has made its entrance into the tropical Atlantic near 31N25W, dragging along a few light showers. Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from east of the Bahamas to near 71W, and watch out for those potentially strong gusty winds and heavy rain!
General Weather Outlook
So, what’s the general forecast? High pressure seems to be maintaining relatively calm marine conditions overall, but specific areas will experience fresh to strong winds and rough seas. If you’re out on the water or planning any activities, it’s always a good idea to stay updated on these conditions and be prepared for whatever Mother Nature throws our way.
Stay tuned, folks! Weather can change in the blink of an eye around here, and it’s always a thrill to see what the tropics will bring next. For more detailed insights, you can read the full report here.